Key Takeaways
- J.D. Vance is the overwhelming favorite for the 2028 GOP presidential nomination, securing over 84% support.
- The conservative base increasingly views Israel as "one ally of many," not solely as the top ally.
- "Winning the midterms" is identified as the number one issue, while the war in Ukraine is the lowest priority.
- Radical Islam, socialism/Marxism, and mass migration are seen as the biggest threats to the country.
- Pete Hegseth and Kristi Noem demonstrate high approval ratings among potential Trump cabinet members.
- There is strong support for an immigration moratorium, with national polls indicating 55% for similar policies.
Deep Dive
- The 2025 Turning Point Action AmFest straw poll was conducted by Rich Barris of Big Data Poll.
- AmFest was described as the largest event of its kind, with attendees demonstrating significant agreement despite media narratives of infighting.
- The poll results skewed towards the youngest demographic of any poll conducted and garnered a record number of responses.
- The high participation was attributed to attendees fully experiencing the event before responding to the poll questions.
- J.D. Vance received 84.2% of the vote for the 2028 GOP nomination, indicating a supermajority.
- Marco Rubio followed with 4.8%, Ron DeSantis with 2.9%, and Don Jr. with 1.8%.
- Ted Cruz received 0.3%, and Yunkin received 0.4%; undecided votes accounted for 2.5%, with 3.1% write-ins.
- The poll showed unprecedented uniformity in results, with no previous Turning Point straw poll demonstrating such a margin of victory.
- A straw poll question asked attendees to describe their view of Israel, yielding nuanced results.
- 53% viewed Israel as 'one ally of many,' 33% as 'our number one ally,' and 13% as 'not an American ally.'
- This sentiment suggests a shift in the conservative base's foreign policy priorities, indicating a focus on 'America First' over solely prioritizing Israel.
- The results are highlighted as a 'wake-up call' to the older GOP establishment regarding foreign policy sentiment.
- Winning the midterms was identified as the number one issue for respondents.
- Other key issues included voter integrity (9.3%), the affordability crisis (8.1%), mass deportations (5.3%), and accountability for deep state lawfare (4.2%).
- Ending the war in Ukraine was the lowest priority, with less than 1% support, attributed to concerns about U.S. deficits and the economy.
- Radical Islam, socialism/Marxism, and mass migration were ranked as the biggest threats facing the country.
- Pete Hegseth received 83% strong approval among Trump's cabinet members.
- Governor Kristi Noem garnered 72.8% strong approval and 17.3% somewhat approving.
- The poll results suggest the base desires leaders who are combative and actively 'fight back'.
- Noem's strong approval is linked to voter desire for deportations and border security, which were identified as top accomplishments for 'Trump 2.0'.
- A straw poll question on an immigration moratorium showed strong support among AmFest attendees.
- The host expressed surprise at the high support, noting it signals a desire for significant change in immigration policy, including border security and deportations.
- Recent scandals and national polls indicating 55% support for similar immigration questions underscore broad public concern over uncontrolled immigration.