Key Takeaways
- "Must-have" Christmas toys have driven annual holiday frenzies since 1983.
- Historically, severe demand for popular toys has led to violence and crowd control issues.
- Advertising, buzz marketing, and deliberate scarcity are key drivers of toy popularity.
- Toy recommendation lists from major retailers may be influenced by paid placements.
- Toy flippers, or scalpers, exacerbate scarcity and profit from high demand through bots.
- Children's methods for discovering desired toys have evolved from catalogs to online content.
Deep Dive
- Cabbage Patch Kids of 1983 were introduced, originating from Xavier Roberts, and presented as the first true "must-have Christmas toy."
- Earlier contenders included Star Wars toys from 1977, which initially sold empty boxes due to unmet demand.
- The Atari Pac-Man cartridge from 1982 sold 7 million units, also generating intense demand comparable to Cabbage Patch Kids.
- Nintendo products, including the original console, Game Boy, and Super Nintendo, dominated the "must-have" market from 1988 to 1990.
- The N64 console, particularly for the multiplayer game GoldenEye, generated intense excitement and competition among friends.
- The Tickle Me Elmo toy from 1996 led to a Walmart employee sustaining multiple injuries, including a concussion and broken ribs, during a stampede.
- Historically, children identified desired toys through Saturday morning cartoon commercials and catalogs like Sears Wishbook.
- The website Wishbook Web archives scanned pages from vintage toy catalogs dating up to 1996.
- The tradition of marking desired items in catalogs has evolved to modern online wish lists and digital catalogs from retailers like Myers, Restoration Hardware, and Ikea.
- The trustworthiness of toy recommendation lists varies, with third-party sites like The Spruce and Toy Insider evaluating toys.
- Retailers such as Amazon and Walmart may charge for placement on their lists, generating significant revenue.
- Walmart charges $10,000 per month for placement on its "buyer's picks" list, which are released as early as August.
- Holiday marketing targets children heavily, leveraging positive emotions and nostalgia to associate brands with the festive spirit.
- A University of Hertfordshire study found up to 100 ads in a three-hour Saturday morning children's programming slot.
- Scarcity marketing, involving the deliberate creation of limited supply, is a key driver of holiday toy frenzies, activating fear of missing out.
- Companies can intentionally create an illusion of scarcity to drive demand, as potentially seen with Spin Master's Hatchimals, which faced accusations of deliberate supply limiting in 2016-2018.
- Fingerlings, small robotic toys, saw their manufacturer increase production by bringing a third factory online and using air transport for faster supply.
- Scarcity creates a psychological divide between "haves" and "have-nots," amplifying fear of missing out and increasing a $15 toy's perceived value during holidays.
- Toy flippers, or scalpers, buy and resell must-have toys for profit on platforms like eBay, contributing to product scarcity.
- Sophisticated bots can bypass security measures like CAPTCHAs by using multiple credit cards and foreign workers.
- These bots can purchase items the second they become available online, preventing regular consumers from acquiring them.
- Tips for reselling toys, referenced from an Investopedia article, include identifying hot toys early by talking to mall Santas, store employees, and children.
- Bribery, such as offering small gift cards, is mentioned as a tactic, with a reminder to deduct it from profits.
- The article also suggests monitoring online chat rooms and websites dedicated to toy reselling for information on availability.
- The Bloom doll, which grows like a Chia Pet, is identified as a highly anticipated toy, appearing on multiple retailer and media lists.
- Other popular toys include a How to Train Your Dragon Toothless Dragon hatchable, Barbie's Dream Plane, and LOL Surprise dolls, which are linked to the trend of unboxing videos on YouTube.
- Ryan's World toys, also associated with a popular YouTube channel, reinforce the "unboxing" trend.