Key Takeaways
- Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal began their 19th annual NFL over/under predictions for the new season.
- Predicting NFL win totals is challenging due to improved quarterback play and fewer definitively bad teams.
- AFC East team analyses, including the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots, yielded diverse win total projections.
- AFC North discussions covered the Baltimore Ravens' playoff ceiling and skepticism for the Steelers and Browns.
- The AFC South review highlighted the Houston Texans' potential but a general distrust for other division teams.
- AFC West predictions focused on the Kansas City Chiefs' over/under and surprising optimism for the Denver Broncos.
Deep Dive
- Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal commenced their 19th annual NFL over/under predictions for the new season.
- Setting lines is complex, with odds shifting based on betting patterns and alternate lines, exemplified by the Buffalo Bills' 11.5 and 12.5 win totals.
- Factors complicating predictions include improved quarterback play and fewer teams definitively performing poorly, making the New York Giants' schedule an analytical point.
- The Jets' over/under win total stands at 6.5, moving up from an initial 5.5 wins.
- Skepticism surrounds quarterback Justin Fields' ability to secure consistent wins, citing concerns about his accuracy and tendency to hold the ball.
- The team's 2023 performance included blown fourth-quarter leads, and the discussion touched on coaching changes including Robert Saleh's departure.
- Their early schedule for the upcoming season is highlighted as challenging.
- The Baltimore Ravens have an over/under of 11.5 wins, raising questions about their ability to translate regular-season success into playoff victories.
- Concerns exist regarding their offensive line depth and the stability of kicker Justin Tucker, despite his recent performance dip.
- The team faces a strong early schedule, potentially starting 2-2, followed by a relatively easier stretch later in the season.
- Skepticism surrounds the Steelers' ability to achieve a 10-7 record, citing concerns about their offensive line and skill position players.
- The team's quarterback situation with Aaron Rodgers, an aging defense, and a challenging schedule contribute to an under bet on their win total.
- Despite coach Mike Tomlin's consistent performance, the team is seen as lacking offensive weapons.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars' over/under win total is set at 7.5, with their playoff odds also under discussion.
- Concerns have been raised about Trevor Lawrence's substantial contract and the team's draft capital, drawing parallels to NBA contract situations.
- The hosts noted new management and the team's favorable strength of schedule against weaker division opponents, despite past betting skepticism.
- The Kansas City Chiefs' over/under for wins is set at 11.5, despite achieving 15 wins in the previous season.
- Underlying metrics showed disparities, including a 22nd-ranked red zone offense and an 11-0 record in one-score games.
- Debate centered on Patrick Mahomes' performance, including his MVP ranking and poor deep passing statistics, with hosts anticipating a comeback season leading to an over bet.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have an over/under of 9.5 wins and 3-to-1 division odds, following an 11-6 record last year against an easier schedule.
- The team struggled to score against strong defenses, and the loss of offensive lineman Slater in August is considered a significant blow.
- Hosts debated the impact of new coach Jim Harbaugh, noting the team's low penalty count and good coaching but also their history of losing to the Chiefs.