Why Trump’s War Week Didn’t Break Markets

Key Takeaways

President Trump's criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is seen as an attempt to sideline him from the Fed board, not just the chairmanship.
Metals like copper and gold are rallying due to geopolitical instability and increasing industrial demand, with some reaching record highs.
The AI market is experiencing intense competition, with Apple strategically fostering rivalry between Google and OpenAI.
OpenAI's consumer model faces significant challenges, requiring massive enterprise adoption to justify its current valuation.
Artificial intelligence is profoundly impacting the job market, contributing to a 76% decline in entry-level hiring last year.
Disney is predicted to be a target for activists and a potential sale by 2026 due to stagnant stock performance and its governance structure.

Scott Galloway recounted a past Bloomberg appearance that led to his departure.
He refused a media company's demand to avoid topics, including 'Sheryl Sandberg,' for a deal.
This refusal resulted in the cancellation of a Bloomberg TV show and his subsequent banning from multiple networks.

President Trump's investigation into Jerome Powell aims to prevent him from serving on the board of governors, not just removing him as Fed chair.
A single dissenting voice like Powell's can sway a board's decision on interest rates, even against a majority.
Prediction markets showed a 30% drop in odds of Powell's removal after the investigation announcement.
Markets recovered to record highs, suggesting belief in Powell's economic judgment and resilience.

Unchecked presidential power, compared to Turkey under Erdogan, can lead to hyperinflation if loyalists are installed at the central bank.
Americans prioritize inflation control, tolerating police action but not economic collapse.
Despite a reported moderate inflation print, adjusted data suggests inflation remains at 3%, influenced by factors like tariffs.
Public support for Jerome Powell is notable because he is not seen as partisan, despite being a Trump appointee.

Metals including copper, gold, silver, tin, lithium, and platinum are rallying, with some reaching record highs in 2026.
Geopolitical instability in Iran, Venezuela, and tensions over Greenland are identified as primary drivers.
Supply shortages and industrial demand from sectors like data centers and electric vehicles also contribute.
Historically, metals see price increases during geopolitical conflicts, contrasting with traditional safe havens.

Bitcoin has seen a 1% year-to-date decline, failing to perform as a hedge or 'digital gold' during current global instability.
Historically, stocks decline by an average of 2% and gold rises by 3% in the short term during conflicts.
A JPMorgan analysis found S&P's 12-month returns average the same during conflict as peacetime, advising against instinctive selling.
Scott Galloway questioned President Trump's geopolitical strategies, particularly regarding Iran and Venezuela.

The Trump administration's actions in Venezuela are viewed as a strategic move to prevent Russian and Chinese influence, with oil prices barely moving.
Concerns exist that the Venezuelan situation, despite strong military execution, could devolve into a poorly executed geopolitical strategy.
The U.S. focus is on controlling the flow of Venezuela's heavy crude oil, rather than direct ownership, which is strategically more powerful.
Critics argue the strategy risks further economically indenturing Venezuela instead of investing in its rebuilding.

The administration's strategy of seeking compliance through force rather than alliance is critiqued as a 'low-IQ move'.
Threats are argued to alienate partners and damage international relationships, potentially fraying U.S. alliances.
Scott Galloway controversially suggested airstrikes on civilian centers in Tehran as a 'high-ROI move' to support Iranian civilians and women's rights.

Google's market cap reached $4 trillion, with its stock rising 70% in the past year, driven by AI developments.
Apple is rumored to pay Google $1 billion annually for Gemini, while possibly receiving ChatGPT for free from OpenAI.
Anthropic's Claude, a consumer-focused coding agent, has gone viral for its utility and may surpass OpenAI by 2026.
Apple's strategy aims to foster a competitive AI market to maximize future licensing fees for its billion users.

ChatGPT leads the AI race with 5.8 billion monthly visits, significantly higher than Gemini (1.4 billion) and Claude ($183 million).
Despite its large consumer base, OpenAI generates only double the revenue of Anthropic, which has 32 times fewer users but an enterprise focus.
Analysts suggest OpenAI must achieve massive enterprise adoption to justify its valuation or face bankruptcy.
AI tools like Claude are now performing tasks previously done by junior employees, contributing to a 76% decline in entry-level hiring last year.