The Biggest Global Risks for 2026 — with Ian Bremmer | The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway Brief

Key Takeaways

Trump's 'Don Rowe doctrine' signals assertive US intervention in the Western Hemisphere, exemplified by Venezuela.
The US is shifting its power projection from tariffs to military, intelligence, and cyber capabilities.
A significant US political revolution, driven by Donald Trump, is underway, challenging established norms.
The US is adopting 'state capitalism with American characteristics,' increasing government influence in economic processes.
China is gaining on the US in scalable energy infrastructure, posing a long-term competitive threat in AI.
AI development is largely unregulated, raising concerns about potential societal damage from consumer-facing products.
Europe faces accelerating geopolitical instability due to weak governments, rising populism, and reduced US support.
Russia is escalating hybrid warfare tactics against NATO frontline states, increasing the risk of a shadow war.

The operation to apprehend Nicolas Maduro was described as a significant military success, efficiently executed over months, seen as a victory for Trump with no American casualties and Maduro brought to the US for trial.
Concerns exist regarding 'second-order questions,' increased regional instability, and the challenges of governing Venezuela post-Maduro, with responsibility potentially falling on the US.
The 'Don Rowe doctrine' is ranked third among global risks, reflecting US assertion as an arbiter in the Western Hemisphere, despite Venezuela's ties to Russia, China, and Iran.
The U.S. allowed Venezuelan oil tankers to go to China despite sanctions, an effort to appease the new government and avoid antagonizing Beijing.

European leaders strongly defended Denmark, a NATO ally, following renewed US threats regarding Greenland, contrasting with US sanctions on Venezuela.
The guest describes the plan to acquire Greenland as 'madness,' stemming from Trump's desire after seeing it on a globe.
The intention is to develop a plan for Greenland to become US sovereign territory through inducements and threats, bypassing direct talks with the Danish government.
There is no intention for a military invasion to acquire Greenland.

The Monroe Doctrine's inclusion in Trump's national security strategy signifies a foreign policy priority, not a limitation on ambition, with increased US engagement in the Gulf states, Israel, and military sales to Taiwan.
US power projection is shifting from tariffs to military, intelligence, and cyber capabilities, especially against smaller nations.
This shift is driven by concerns over affordability, potential retaliatory tariffs from China, and possible Supreme Court rulings constraining economic tools.
A 'G0 world' with an unreliable U.S. compels allies like Canada, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Australia to hedge bets and increase self-reliance, impacting allies more than adversaries.

The guest identifies the U.S. political revolution as the top risk, defined by Donald Trump's belief that the political system was weaponized against him.
Trump's aim is to take political control and weaponize government ministries to prevent opponents from regaining power.
While attempting this revolution, the guest expects it to fail, though the U.S. political system has only partially constrained it.
The discussion notes many of Trump's actions, despite media attention, did not break norms or laws in his first term but are becoming revolutionary, necessitating scrutiny of checks and balances.

The concept of 'state capitalism with American characteristics' is discussed as a risk, involving Washington, specifically Trump, injecting itself into investment and capital processes.
Examples include a potential 'golden share' for steel, influencing companies like NVIDIA and Intel, and demanding foreign investments like Japan's $550 billion facility.
This approach, which personalizes industrial policy beyond strategic sectors, adds costs and uncertainty, contrasting with historical industrial policy.
Norm erosion and increased executive power could lead to similar state-driven economic policies under both Republican and Democratic administrations, shifting focus to favored industries.

China is noted for mastering the electric and energy infrastructure stack, while the US focuses on AI model development, often offering 20th-century energy solutions versus China's 21st-century infrastructure.
The US is falling behind China in developing cheaper, scalable energy sources like wind, solar, and nuclear power, continuing to focus on oil and gas.
Despite the US having more advanced AI technology, China's scalable and cheaper energy production poses a long-term threat, contrasting with the US's short-term and inconsistent strategy.
Trump's stance against solar and wind power is seen as detrimental to US long-term energy strategy, impacting its ability to compete.

The current development of AI is occurring outside of regulatory frameworks, raising concerns about rapid, unmonitored advancement and potential societal damage.
Investors are pressuring companies for commercialized AI products, which could be particularly harmful if consumer-facing and designed to maximize engagement without user well-being, similar to social media's negative impacts.
The discussion highlights a lack of regulation for AI, noting Europe is avoiding it due to a need for competitiveness, while China strictly controls consumer AI and advances industrial and security applications.
The current U.S. strategy concerning energy and AI is viewed as a bad bet that could lead to significant losses if not corrected.

Europe faces significant geopolitical risks in 2026, including weak governments in France, Germany, and the UK, rising populism, and limited capacity for reform.
This decline is viewed as more significant than the US decline over the past 20 years, exacerbated by decreased defense spending and potential decreases in US support.
Europe is pressured by both Russia, through asymmetric warfare and border threats, and potentially a less supportive United States, which may prefer a fragmented Europe.
Populist movements like the UK Reform Party, Germany's AfD, and France's National Rally are examples of this trend, aligning with a 'Europe first' sentiment that could lead to a crisis due to diminished U.S. commitment to established institutions.

Russia is employing hybrid warfare tactics targeting NATO frontline states, including cyber attacks, disruption of infrastructure, drone incursions, and financial backing of vandalism.
These actions are seen as an attempt to divide Europe internally and externally, particularly from the US, to influence the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
NATO countries are beginning to recognize this threat and consider collective countermeasures, escalating the risk of a shadow war.
Despite this, some hope stems from countries like India and Gulf states actively building regional stability and alternative alliances, demonstrating resilience in international relations.