The Oscar Noms Mailbag: Is ‘Sinners’ vs. ‘One Battle After Another’ a Race? Plus: Best Picture Power Rankings.

Key Takeaways

The past weekend's box office showed a decline, impacting new releases and the fate of potential sequels.
Oscar nominations sparked a listener mailbag segment, addressing snubs and the influence of film release dates.
The Best Picture race is closely contested between 'Sinners' and 'One Battle After Another,' with 'Sinners' gaining significant momentum.
Campaign strategies, rather than performance quality, were cited as reasons for Leonardo DiCaprio's Best Actor snub.
Hosts discussed potential new Oscar categories, including 'breakthrough performance' and an 'ensemble' award.
The awards viability of unconventional films like 'Eddington' and the Academy's approach to sequels were debated.
Early Oscar wins and the diminishing influence of fall film festivals for major contenders were analyzed.
The episode concluded with an update to the hosts' Best Picture power rankings following the official nominations.

The hosts updated their Best Picture power rankings following the official Oscar nominations.
They acknowledged a past oversight, admitting that 'Begonia' should have been included in earlier rankings from December 19th.
A debate ensued over whether 'One Battle After Another' or 'Sinners' deserved the top spot in their updated list.
Ultimately, 'One Battle After Another' was finalized at number one, with 'Sinners' ranked second.
The discussion considered historical biases and genre snobbery within the Academy that might affect 'One Battle After Another's' chances.

The past weekend's box office declined, attributed to a storm and the underperformance of a new Chris Pratt film.
'28 Years Later' saw a 70% drop, grossing $21 million domestically, casting doubt on a third installment.
A third '28 Years Later' film is possible, with a screenplay in existence and potential Netflix co-financing, alongside Oscar winner Cillian Murphy's return.
Upcoming releases include 'Send Help' starring Rachel McAdams and the Jason Statham action film 'Shelter'.

Listener questions focused on the perceived snubs of 'No Other Choice' and 'The Testament of Anly' from Oscar nominations.
'No Other Choice' by Park Chan Wook was not nominated, potentially due to its transgressiveness or Neon's distribution strategy favoring other titles.
Film release dates significantly impacted award chances, with 'No Other Choice' positioned as a Christmas commercial release.
'Ann Lee' faced a limited release and poor box office, possibly due to its unconventional nature, late campaign, and difficult themes.
An exceptional performance in 'Ann Lee' could be historically overlooked, suggesting an earlier release might have altered its fate.

The hosts noted surprise at the volume and strong sentiment of listener emails concerning the film 'No Other Choice.'
The film was identified as belonging to a 'mainstream cinephile' category, differentiating it from more niche arthouse cinema.
This strong audience engagement followed discussions about the film's Oscar snub and varying critical reception.

'Sinners' emerged as a major contender for Best Picture with a record 16 nominations, surpassing 'One Battle After Another's' 13.
Its multiple nominations for strong acting (Winmi Misaku, Del Roy Lindo), score, song, costumes, and production design (leveraging the 'Black Panther' legacy team) could influence voter perception.
Acclaimed crew members like Oscar winners Ruth Carter and Hannah Beeckler, and cinematographer Autumn Dural Arcapa, bolster 'Sinners'' case.
The possibility of 'Sinners' winning numerous below-the-line awards, similar to 'Mad Max: Fury Road,' may impact above-the-line decisions.
Despite both films being studio-funded, 'One Battle After Another' aligns more with traditional Academy tastes for historical dramas.

The hosts revealed they do not host Oscar parties, preferring to watch the ceremony in silence as a sign of deep professional respect.
Strategies for hosting include incorporating games like ballots and elimination rounds to keep guests engaged.
Advice covered appropriate guest count, the importance of sound systems, and film-themed food and drink ideas.
Confirming the correct start time for the Oscars broadcast was emphasized to avoid common guest confusion.

The hosts defended the expansion of Best Picture nominees to 10, arguing it successfully brings more seen films into the conversation.
A listener inquired about expanding acting nominations from five to 10, mirroring the Best Picture category.
Proposed new categories included 'breakthrough performance' or 'comedic performance' rather than simply increasing existing slots.
Concerns were raised that genre-based categories could exacerbate issues of 'category fraud' within the Academy.

One host highlighted Elizabeth Olsen's committed performance in the Hulu film 'The Assessment' as entirely overlooked.
Josh O'Connor was cited as a potential award contender for 'Wake Up Deadman' despite limited precursor recognition.
Sean Fennessey praised Ray Fiennes' dedicated performance in 'Bone Temple' as a worthy contender, noting his underappreciated commitment.
Jennifer Lawrence's Oscar snub for 'Die My Love' was attributed to the crowded 'troubled mom' category, despite her acknowledged talent.

A listener proposed a new Oscar category for 'best needle drops,' citing disappointment with original song nominations.
The hosts debated the viability of such a category, suggesting it might be too 'internet-y' for the Academy.
The idea of a 'best ending' category for films was also discussed, acknowledging the challenge of concluding a movie effectively.
The Academy's perceived disinterest in sequels was noted, with 'Dune Part 2' receiving fewer nominations than 'Dune Part 1' despite some considering it superior.

Early Oscar broadcast wins for specific acting categories, such as for Delroy Lindo or Won Met Mu in 'One Battle After Another,' are considered key momentum indicators.
Wins in technical categories like editing and cinematography for 'Sinners' could also signal its overall strength toward Best Picture.
A trend was observed where Best Picture hopefuls like 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners' bypassed traditional fall film festivals.
The discussion questioned if the influence of these major festivals on award prospects is diminishing for top contenders.