92% of Detentions Aren’t Criminals: Who Is ICE Really Arresting?

Key Takeaways

A poll revealed 85.19% opposition to deporting long-term, law-abiding immigrants.
ICE's own data indicates 92% of recent detention growth involves individuals without criminal convictions.
Dr. Austin Kocher analyzes immigration enforcement data to counter political rhetoric.
Obama's administration had higher deportation numbers, while Trump focused on border control and spectacle.
Studies suggest immigrants generally commit crimes at a lower rate than U.S.-born citizens.

A Smerconish poll found 85.19% of 75,637 voters oppose deporting immigrants who illegally entered or overstayed visas, but have lived and paid taxes for years without criminal convictions.
A Wall Street Journal article highlighted ICE data from Sept 21, 2025, to Jan 7, 2026, showing an increase of 11,296 single-day detentions.
Of this increase, only 902 detained individuals had criminal convictions, 2,273 had pending charges, and 8,121 were classified as other immigration violators.
This data suggests a disconnect between public rhetoric about targeting dangerous criminals and the reality of ICE detentions.

Dr. Austin Kocher confirmed that President Obama deported more people than any subsequent president, earning him the 'deporter-in-chief' label.
Obama's administration favored routine government processes and institutional collaboration, leading to high but less publicized deportations.
The Trump administration's approach prioritized spectacle and headline-grabbing actions, which the guest stated effectively closed the border.
Trump's policies led to a significant decrease in illegal border crossings, contrasting with the Obama-Biden era.

ICE's own published data shows a growth of over 11,000 individuals in detention between September and January, with over 8,000 having no criminal history.
The 92% figure represents individuals with no criminal history, such as those who overstayed a visa.
ICE conducts expansive operations in cities, employing tactics like questioning people on sidewalks and knocking on doors.
Enforcement methods are described as potentially indiscriminate, leading to concerns about profiling and the apprehension of individuals with no criminal record, including workers, parents, and spouses of U.S. citizens.

A study by Abramitsky et al. from the National Bureau of Economic Research, titled 'Law-Abiding Immigrants,' compared criminality rates of migrants versus U.S.-born citizens.
The guest stated that immigrants, on average, commit crimes at a lower rate than U.S.-born citizens.
Overstaying a visa is a civil violation, not a criminal one, and many undocumented immigrants are married to U.S. citizens with no criminal convictions.
A 2022 interview with Professor Ram Abramovsky discussed findings about lower incarceration rates among immigrants compared to the U.S.-born population over 150 years (1870-2020).

A caller questioned why sanctuary cities do not cooperate with ICE, suggesting it's counterproductive.
The host explained that sanctuary city policies aim to encourage reporting of crimes by undocumented individuals without fear of deportation.
Another caller asserted that statistics on illegal immigrant crime rates are unreliable because officials are prohibited from asking about immigration status in states like Minnesota.

The host posed a poll question regarding whether the next Democratic president would maintain Donald Trump's border security measures, noting a significant decrease in border crossings.
Smerconish suggested that with the border currently 'closed,' it's an ideal moment to create a pathway for undocumented immigrants to gain legal status short of citizenship.
The host credited Trump's approach for the currently 'working' border, but expressed concern that a Democratic administration might reverse these gains without a long-term plan.
Don from Dayton, Ohio, agreed that a pathway to permanent residence and work authorization, rather than citizenship, could be a logical solution.

A caller argued for distinguishing between legal and illegal immigrants, insisting the border must be secured first before any grand bargain on immigration.
The discussion speculated that Democrats opposed the SAFE Act to gain political advantage, believing immigrants would support their party.
A caller questioned why neither Republicans nor Democrats prioritize comprehensive immigration reform addressing legal immigration, work visas, border security, and pathways to citizenship or residency.
Dan from New Jersey criticized the Democratic administration for allegedly allowing 15 to 20 million people to enter the country despite claims of a secure border.