Key Takeaways
- The Supreme Court will examine if states can count mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day but received afterward.
- The case challenges existing laws in 30 states, including Mississippi, that allow a post-Election Day grace period for mail ballot receipt.
- A previous podcast poll revealed a near-even split on whether polls or betting markets are more reliable election predictors.
- Legal experts are debating the interpretation of "Election Day" concerning mail-in ballot receipt deadlines.
Deep Dive
- The daily Smerconish.com poll questions if the Supreme Court should allow states to count mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day but arriving afterward.
- This poll reflects a real case the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear.
- The host noted surprise that 30 states currently have similar rules permitting late ballot counting.
- Tuesday's poll asked if polls or betting markets are more reliable election predictors, with 27,018 votes cast.
- 52.35% favored polls, while 47.65% favored betting markets.
- The host believes betting markets, like PredictIt, will increasingly surpass polls due to constant updates and past performance, citing academic studies and Politico.
- The Supreme Court case centers on whether "Election Day" refers to when a ballot is cast or when it is received by officials.
- The host initially feared exploitation but reconsidered upon learning 29 states and D.C. already allow counting ballots arriving after Election Day.
- The case, Watson v. Republican National Committee, challenges laws in Mississippi and 30 other states allowing receipt within five business days post-election.
- Amy Howe of SCODIS Blog provided coverage of the legal challenge.
- UCLA Professor Richard Hassan criticized Judge Oldham's Fifth Circuit opinion on ballot receipt deadlines as "bonkers."
- Hassan argues "Election Day" refers to when voters cast ballots, contrasting with Oldham's view supporting receipt by Election Day based on historical practice and text law.
- The central question is if a ballot must be cast and received by Election Day, or if a grace period after mailing is permissible.
- Professor Hassan asserts that 30 states already allow ballots arriving after Election Day to be counted, and this practice is functional.
- The host questioned the arbitrariness of ballot receipt deadlines, such as five or 50 days, emphasizing the need for clear cutoffs.