Key Takeaways
- The US jobs report is expected to show moderate growth, but manufacturing and construction sectors are shedding jobs.
- The expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit this week is expected to curb sales and prompt automakers to scale back plans.
- The Bloomberg Women, Money, Power conference in London will address the increasing influence of women in finance and global economic issues.
- China faces deflationary pressures and weak domestic demand despite financial market optimism for supply-side reforms.
Deep Dive
- The upcoming September jobs report is expected to show approximately 55,000 jobs added, according to Bloomberg Economics US economist Stuart Paul.
- Revised corporate profits suggest potential slowdowns in expansion, investment, and hiring, despite strong Q2 GDP and consumer spending.
- Manufacturing and construction sectors are shedding jobs, indicating a growth-negative environment without immediate positive impact from industrial policy.
- The $7,500 federal tax credit for Electric Vehicle buyers expires this week, expected to significantly decrease EV sales.
- Automakers like GM are reducing production, while Japanese automakers and Ford are scaling back EV plans due to financial losses and demand concerns.
- The expiration is viewed as a transition, potentially benefiting EV-only manufacturers like Tesla and Rivian, as the industry addresses high costs and charging infrastructure.
- The Bloomberg Women, Money, and Power conference in London will highlight the increasing influence of women in finance and decision-making roles.
- Women are projected to control $34 trillion in US assets by 2030, a significant increase from less than a third a decade ago.
- Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser notes robust Q2 performance driven by increased client activity responding to clarity on taxes, tariffs, and deregulation.
- Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser stated that clarity on taxes, tariffs, and deregulation has increased client activity in capital markets, leading to strong Q2 performance.
- Fraser indicated that while growth may slow slightly and the labor market is tight, no recession is currently on the horizon.
- Citigroup is positioned to support clients through global volatility and geopolitical risks by leveraging its operations across 160 countries.
- The second annual Women, Money and Power Conference in London will feature influential women including Julia Hoggett (London Stock Exchange CEO) and Emma Walmsley (GSK CEO).
- Discussions will cover critical global finance issues like real estate, banking, private markets, and the impact of the US presidency and ongoing wars.
- The conference will address Julia Hoggett's concerns about delistings from the London Stock Exchange and efforts to encourage new listings.
- Challenges of low retail investing in the UK compared to the US and ways to make investing more attractive will also be explored.
- Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend will track China's economy as new PMI data is released, noting continued fundamental weakness despite strong market performance post-policy shift.
- China's "anti-involution" campaign aims to curb excessive competition and address overcapacity, particularly in the electric vehicle sector.
- China's efforts to export its way out of overcapacity contribute to a record trade surplus.
- China faces weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures, with consumer prices being negative for five of the eight months in 2025.
- A 30% drop in property values since 2021 has made households feel poorer, increasing savings and reducing demand, exacerbating deflation.
- Policymakers are attempting supply-side measures like reducing subsidies and discouraging price wars to address manufacturing overcapacity, impacting manufacturing PMI and fixed asset investment.
- China's artificial intelligence sector presents a positive narrative, particularly in semiconductor development, with companies like Alibaba, Baidu, and Huawei creating chips to rival NVIDIA's.
- China possesses an advantage in electricity supply for AI data centers, with rapid growth in capacity alleviating concerns faced by U.S. hyperscalers.
- While China's energy mix is transitioning, the majority of electricity generation for AI data centers still relies on fossil fuels, primarily coal.