Key Takeaways
- NFL running backs' salaries and careers have significantly declined since 2025.
- The passing game's evolution drove the devaluation of running backs.
- Running backs' physical abilities remain high, but team demand has shifted.
- The 2011 CBA significantly impacted running backs' contract control and earnings.
- Analytics reveal passing is more effective for scoring than running plays.
- The position endures extreme physical punishment and high injury risk.
- Teams prioritize offensive line and blocking over individual star running backs.
- NFL strategy adapts to consumer demand for high-scoring, pass-heavy games.
- A running back renaissance is hoped for, but market forces prioritize versatility.
Deep Dive
- The NFL running back position, once second in average salary among top players 30 years ago, has dropped to 15th.
- This decline is explored in an updated 2025 episode featuring analytics experts, agents, economists, and former running backs.
- Harvard economist Roland Fryer, author of "The Economics of Running Backs," co-hosts to analyze position valuation.
- Historically central to football since the mid-1800s, running backs were once highly revered players.
- Economist Roland Fryer's research confirmed a downward salary trend for running backs and an upward trend for quarterbacks and other positions.
- In the 2025 NFL season, starting quarterbacks averaged over $30 million, while starting running backs earned $7 million.
- Analysis found that running backs' physical abilities, like 40-yard dash times, have remained consistent over time.
- The shift in valuation is driven by the increased expected value of passing plays over running plays, not a decrease in player quality.
- Former NFL running back LeSean McCoy expressed strong dissatisfaction with the current market, deeming it unfair that running backs are not valued comparably to quarterbacks.
- McCoy criticized the New York Giants for paying quarterback Daniel Jones significantly more than running back Saquon Barkley, despite Barkley's strong performance.
- In 2023, Saquon Barkley was franchise tagged by the Giants, then signed with the Eagles for a fraction of Jones's salary.
- Sports data scientist Brian Burke acknowledges his analysis on run-pass balance may have contributed to the decline in running back salaries.
- Burke, a former U.S. Navy pilot, applied statistical training to football analytics, noting the sport's underdeveloped analytical practices.
- Fewer running backs are being selected in the first two rounds of the NFL draft, a factor in their declining salaries.
- Former NFL running back Robert Turbin identifies the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) as a primary cause for the difficult market.
- The 2011 CBA mandated a four-year rookie contract with a fifth-year option, preventing running backs from negotiating new terms until around age 27.
- This structure hinders running backs from maximizing earnings during their physical prime, as their performance often declines by age 27.
- The Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) effectively devalued the running back position by extending contract control until players reach age 27, often past their peak.
- The average NFL career for running backs has significantly decreased from approximately 5.5 years to 2.5 years since the 2011 CBA's implementation.
- Former running back Robert Smith, who played eight years, detailed the position's physical toll, including multiple knee surgeries.
- Smith prioritized long-term health, retiring early from the NFL despite a lucrative final contract, and transitioned to broadcasting.
- Running backs and fullbacks have seen only an 11% salary increase over two decades, while other offensive positions have risen at least 90%.
- Agent Jeffrey Whitney noted his agency, formerly known for representing numerous running backs, has diversified its roster due to market changes.
- The rise of the 'running quarterback' and rule changes favoring passing offenses have devalued the traditional running back role.
- The NFL, a $20 billion industry projected to reach $50 billion, is adapting to consumer demand for higher-scoring games with more passing.
- The running back position involves extreme physical punishment and a high likelihood of injury due to "violent" hits on nearly every play.
- ESPN analyst Brian Burke states that teams prioritize a strong overall running game and offensive line performance over acquiring a star running back.
- Analytics suggest offensive linemen and blocking schemes are responsible for initial yards gained, with the running back's elusiveness crucial for additional gains.
- Running backs often face short careers and lower pay, prompting contract holdouts like those by Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs in 2023.
- Sports data indicates holding out can shorten a player's career, as teams may opt for slightly less productive but more cost-effective options.
- The Super Bowl success of the Philadelphia Eagles, boosted by Saquon Barkley, raises questions about a potential re-evaluation and increased value for running backs.
- However, sports agent Jeffrey Whitney advises young athletes to consider positions like long snapper or kicker for longer NFL careers due to declining running back importance.
- Former running back Robert Smith analyzed the impact of dual-threat quarterbacks, like Lamar Jackson, and how strong running games contribute to team success, influencing market value.
- Smith expressed skepticism about a return to a run-first offense, stating the overall NFL strategy still prioritizes passing and versatile offensive threats.
- Economist Roland Fryer, while acknowledging market demand, personally hopes for a "running back renaissance" and advises young players to increase productivity or diversify skills.