Episode

Key Takeaways

U.S. war games consistently predicted chaos from Venezuelan regime change scenarios.
The Trump administration captured Nicolas Maduro in an unprecedented action not considered in prior simulations.
Venezuela's economic crisis and authoritarian rule have led to mass migration and severe humanitarian challenges.
The Biden administration shifted its Venezuela strategy, focusing on criminal networks and targeted sanctions.

The U.S. government conducted 'war games' and simulations as early as the Trump administration's first term to plan for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's potential ousting.
Douglas Farah, a U.S. government advisor, explained these simulations involve teams role-playing different actors and analyzing economic, military, and social factors in geopolitical scenarios.
All scenarios exploring Maduro's removal consistently projected disastrous outcomes, indicating widespread chaos rather than a stable transition.

During the Trump administration's first term, war game scenarios focused on the 'day after' Nicolas Maduro's removal, considering internal power vacuums and democratic transition.
These simulations were prompted by internal fissures within Maduro's regime and the international recognition of opposition leader Juan Guaido in 2019.
A key scenario involved the 2019 planned delivery of humanitarian aid, which Maduro's government obstructed by closing the border and burning supplies.

Scenarios for a post-Maduro Venezuela, particularly if removed by an internal coup, consistently predicted regime continuity rather than a popular uprising, given the opposition's lack of structure and the regime's repressive apparatus.
A 2019 report for the Pentagon analyzed that removing Nicolás Maduro would lead to prolonged chaos and a fractured military, resulting in regional mini-states similar to Syria.
The report also indicated Maduro effectively managed internal factions, a unifying capacity that other potential successors lacked.

During the Biden administration, analysis shifted from regime change to the intersection of criminal organizations and the Venezuelan regime, as other global issues took priority.
The new focus included understanding criminal and extra-regional groups, and exploring targeted economic sanctions on elites rather than the general population.
An analysis detailed how $3.3 billion in illicit funds was moved by the Maduro regime and FARC via the state oil company through shell companies to international safe harbors.

A surprise special operation captured Nicolas Maduro, bringing him to the U.S. to face trial, with the U.S. effectively taking control of Venezuela.
Guests stated that kidnapping a head of state was not considered in war games, as it was deemed an unrealistic scenario.
The speaker expressed shock at this unprecedented step by the Trump administration, predicting the operation's high point was Maduro's capture due to the country's severe shortages.
President Trump cited Venezuela as a hub for drug operations entering the U.S. as justification for his actions, though Venezuela does not produce cocaine and has no evidence linking it to the fentanyl trade.

A consultant argued that cutting off economic lifelines to elites in Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Bolivia, an alliance supported by Russia, Iran, and China, would have destabilized regimes.
This strategy, combined with comprehensive financial and humanitarian aid, was seen as crucial for effective intervention.
War game scenarios consistently showed all outcomes, including inaction, resulted in disaster, emphasizing that successful interventions require substantial resources and political alignment, alongside simultaneous aid, business, and humanitarian packages, which the U.S. has been unwilling to commit.