The Israeli Right’s Plan to Carve Up Gaza

Key Takeaways

The Israeli perspective on the ceasefire and Gaza's future diverges from U.S. views, with little belief in a two-state solution.
Israel's proposed post-conflict Gaza involves division into a rebuilt south and a devastated north, overseen by Israeli security.
Most Israelis distrust the Palestinian Authority, hindering its role in future governance due to concerns over its educational curriculum.
Israel's foreign policy is increasingly transactional, focusing on military and technological exchanges rather than shared values or international agreements.

The dominant U.S. perspective on the conflict differs from the Israeli view, which is more right-leaning and does not prioritize a two-state solution.
The recent ceasefire agreement was primarily a prisoner swap and does not signify the end of the war with Hamas; Israel retains control over 53% of Gaza.
The guest proposes a divided Gaza: a new, Western-funded city in the south with Israeli security, and the north in ruins, allowing market forces to determine resident choice.
Israel's unstated goal is to avoid 'phase two' of the ceasefire deal, which involves demilitarizing Hamas, a prospect the guest views with pessimism.

90-92% of Israelis do not believe in the Palestinian Authority (PA) due to its alleged anti-Semitic and anti-Western educational curriculum.
Regional powers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia also reportedly lack confidence in the PA's current form.
A Palestinian authority not educating its youth for hatred or 'pay for slay' would cease to be the Palestinian authority as currently understood.
Trump's private stance, as explained by the guest, prioritizes eliminating Hamas, which impacts the PA's potential role in Gaza's future governance.

The guest projects a scenario of potential Palestinian statehood within 10-20 years, with a reformed governing entity coexisting with Israel.
Palestinians might not consider this true statehood due to ongoing Israeli control over borders and movement.
Israelis widely supported a two-state solution until the October 7th attacks.
Past peace attempts in the 1990s are argued to have failed due to Palestinian unwillingness for a two-state solution, citing the 'from the river to the sea' slogan.

Most Israelis, including those on the right, prioritize security through a permanent Israeli military presence over annexation or settlements in Gaza.
The concept of 'Lebanonization' has evolved, now viewed positively as a maintained ceasefire enforced by Israeli military action when necessary, reflecting constant security presence.
Israel's primary lesson from recent conflicts, including October 7th, is the necessity of relying on its own military strength.
This reliance stems from a stated lack of trust in international agreements or guarantees, drawing parallels to Donald Trump's transactional foreign policy.

The Abraham Accords established transactional relationships between Israel and several Arab nations, independent of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, showing resilience during recent events.
The October 7th attacks were intended to halt the normalization process, specifically a Saudi Arabia-Israel peace treaty scheduled days later.
Expanding the Abraham Accords would strategically demonstrate that October 7th was a failure for its perpetrators.
Post-October 7th, Saudi Arabia's demands for normalization with Israel evolved from vague lip service regarding the Palestinian issue to a need for more concrete actions.

A New York Times Siena poll indicates a generational divide in American sympathy, with younger adults favoring Palestinians and older adults favoring Israelis, a trend also observed in Europe.
Public opinion regarding the conflict, amplified by social media's focus on suffering, significantly impacts international perception of Israel.
Netanyahu's attempts to manage public perception, including a controversial interview on the Nelk Boys podcast, potentially damaged Israel's image among younger demographics.
Israel can no longer base its relationships, particularly with the United States, solely on 20th-century dynamics, as public opinion is elastic and changes over time.

Israeli politics, particularly under Prime Minister Netanyahu, has aligned with the U.S. Republican party, potentially alienating Democrats.
An IDF chief of staff's 2023 statement indicated long-term planning for fighter jets accounts for potential U.S. administrations imposing arm embargoes.
A hypothetical Kamala Harris presidency might have led to an arm embargo if Israel had invaded Gaza City, suggesting a shift in U.S. policy considerations.
The core difference in U.S.-Israel relations stems from the existential threat Iran poses to Israel, a view shared by most Israelis, leading to broader divergences on security threats.

Guest discusses Israel's settlement expansion in the West Bank and the indefinite reoccupation of Gaza, suggesting this could lead to an apartheid-like situation.
The guest argues the conflict differs from South African apartheid due to the stated aim of eliminating Israelis, citing the October 7th attacks.
The Palestinian issue is identified as Israel's primary problem post-October 7th, emphasizing the need to educate the Palestinian Authority on Western values over 20 years.
Two potential paths for Israel include adapting to global opinion or becoming more self-reliant and militarily focused, reflecting Netanyahu's 'Athens and a super Sparta' analogy.

Israeli politics is structured around coalitions, not two dominant parties, allowing complex formations like a potential anti-Netanyahu alliance.
The political landscape has shifted, blurring traditional left-right distinctions, with the primary dividing line now appearing to be religious identity.
A shift from a 'security generation' to an 'identity generation' since 2020 is identified as a cause of political instability and frequent elections.
Netanyahu has defied expectations by reaching the fourth year of his term, and the complexity of coalition politics may allow him to survive upcoming elections despite losing his outright majority.