How the World Sees America, With Adam Tooze

Key Takeaways

The world is experiencing a profound "rupture," signaling the end of an old global order and the struggle for a new one.
American influence is shifting, and both Biden and Trump administrations presented distinct, often contradictory, visions of U.S. power.
China's unprecedented economic and industrial development, particularly in green energy, is a critical force reshaping global dynamics.
Western observers face challenges in analyzing China's transformation, which often defies conventional development theories.

Historian Adam Tooze, author of "Crashed," discusses the end of an old world order and the emergence of new global dynamics.
The podcast explores the changing global perception of the U.S. and the implications of its declining hegemony.
The discussion references Antonio Gramsci's quote about "morbid symptoms" appearing during transitions, framing the current era as a "time of monsters."
Tooze described the World Economic Forum in Davos as a "global showcase" for the Trump administration, noting its uninhibited behavior as "truly sobering."

The Biden administration pursued an "old Atlanticism" while also seeking to restore American liberal hegemony after the 2016 election.
Biden's approach struggled to deliver domestic bargains and alienated allies with economic nationalism, despite promises of returning to an idealized American role.
Trump's vision, described as less nationalist, focused on American greatness and patriotism, with a narrative of the U.S. as a "loser in globalization."
The discussion noted Trump's understanding of power focused on visible industrial production, such as battleships, rather than conventional defense strategies.

At Davos, the American message was one of dominance, while China presented itself with "pure Davos" rhetoric, emphasizing inclusivity and multilateralism.
The Chinese delegation employed traditional 1990s-era buzzwords related to economic cooperation, specifying GDP figures in purchasing power parity adjusted dollars.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's call for a new, independent Europe contrasted with China's advocacy for economic globalization.
Two key issues in Europe-China relations were identified: the European automotive industry and China's alignment with Russia over Ukraine, which acts as a political wedge.

China has exerted a significant and prolonged pressure on American politics and society beyond simple notions of low-wage labor, predating the Trump administration.
The 1997 Kyoto Protocol saw a unanimous U.S. Senate objection due to China's exemption from emission reduction targets, highlighting its impact on U.S. domestic politics.
During the Obama era, a "New Yorker" article detailed the U.S. Senate's paralysis, contrasting with China's rapid development and a perception that 'China is fast and now we are slow.'
China's dynamism in areas like tech and financial engineering is contrasted with perceived static American politics, which is often seen as traumatized by past changes.

The guest contends the U.S. struggles with innovation in areas like unemployment insurance, evidenced by its COVID-19 response.
This contrasts with the Chinese Communist Party's continuous reinvention and innovation in governance structures.
There has been a recent shift in conventional wisdom regarding China, moving from a period of "China hype" to one of "China decline," linked to Xi Jinping's authoritarian actions.
Western observers find it difficult to analyze China objectively due to a mix of fascination and prejudice, requiring a more humble, empirical approach.

The guest describes his recent experiences in China as "mind-bending," highlighting the staggering scale of development.
China has rapidly constructed 23,000 miles of high-speed rail.
Approximately 88-89% of current homes in China have been built since the early 1990s.
China's rapid build-out of green energy, including solar and battery storage, could put the world on a climate stabilization track, with over 1,000 gigawatts of annual solar panel production capacity.

While Trump's administration focuses on hydrocarbons and increased oil access, China is framed as an "electrostated," future-oriented power.
AI and the broader technological race are critically dependent on energy, with solar, wind, and batteries presented as the most viable and affordable future sources.
The Biden administration's tariffs on Chinese solar panels were a deliberate act, potentially to retard the U.S. energy transition for political reasons or for geopolitical power.
The U.S. energy policy exhibits contradiction, simultaneously promoting oil production and hindering future energy sources like solar and wind, due to its dual role as a major oil consumer and producer.

High-ranking Chinese officials believe in America's pervasive influence and global orchestration, holding conspiratorial views on events like the Ukraine war.
There is also a sense of bemusement regarding U.S. politics, exemplified by a state think tank's abandoned effort to closely track Donald Trump's daily activities.
The Trump administration's approach to China was characterized by crude, psychologizing tactics and a desire for high-profile deals.
The guest argues that defining the world solely as an axis of democracies versus authoritarians is unhelpful, overlooking pragmatic alliances between nations like Russia and China.

The guest argues that the current global state is not even an "interregnum," as historical transitions rarely lead to predictable, stable outcomes.
Many global actors, including China and figures like Mark Carney, are motivated by a desire for predictability and stable rules for profit and political stability.
Mark Carney's 2019 argument suggested a multipolar, networked order could offer stability, rather than a unipolar or bipolar system.
The guest discusses "ordering attempts" rather than a fixed order, noting the novelty of multiple competent nation-states and rejecting a simple transition to Chinese hegemony.